Falcons Under Fire

*DEAD BLOG IS ALIVE*


For the first time this season, The Adamson Falcons are in a 2-game slump. Expectations were set high for this season and they were poised to prove them right, ending the first round with a 5-2 slate, losing only to FEU and ADMU.


But despite statement victories versus FEU and UST (in double OT), they dropped 3 of their last 4 games to UE, ADMU, and NU (the sole victory in between came against UP.) What's wrong with this team?




Before we look at what's wrong with the Falcons, here's what they're doing right.


MYTH: Despite the rep, the statistics say that Adamson defends poorly.


FACT: They are the best team in terms of limiting opponents' field goal attempts.


There is some basis for this: Adamson is second to last in terms of field goal percentage allowed (OppFG%) at 40.7% (UST is last at 42%, while ADMU leads at 33.3%)


But in terms of limiting attempts, Adamson is the best with nearly 58 OppFGA per game. This is worth noting because UST, the next in this category, allows 62 OppFGA. The league average OppFGA is pegged at 63.8 OppFGA. This leads to an average disparity of 5.8 FGA per game. NU and UP are dead last in this category with 67.4 OppFGA.


Given their half-court reputation (which I will discuss later on), one is inclined to say, of course they allow fewer attempts because they play at a slow pace. Let's compute team possessions per game using this formula:


Possessions = .96 * (FGA − ORb + TO + (.475 * FTA)) (source)

Adamson is 3rd in pace with 73 possessions per game. Granted, 73 possessions per game is high relative to the other teams, it's still not as extreme as the highs and lows of DLSU and FEU. The point is, Adamson doesn't play dramatically slower than other teams to warrant that half-court reputation. 

The difference in OppFGA therefore lies with the steals they create and turnovers they force (first and second in those categories, respectively.) If you allow your opponents to shoot the ball almost six attempts fewer than the average while playing at the same pace with the league, then you're doing a pretty good job defensively. 

What happens to the shots that your opponents are able to put up are a different matter entirely, but the fact that Adamson puts up more shots than the opponents do puts them in a better position to win games. 

MYTH: Adamson is a half-court oriented team.

TRUTH: Adamson relies on the break more than we thought.

Adamson is 2nd in the league in fastbreak points with 11.3 points, or 16.8% of their total points. DLSU is the runaway first here with 12.7 points, or 17.9% of their total. Adamson certainly doesn't win the games via shot selection - they're 2nd to the last in the league with 37.3 FG%. This alone should raise a red flag.

Though they are don't actively run for fast breaks like DLSU and run mostly off turnovers, it's this ability to capitalize on mistakes that helps AdU win games. 

*note: the T.O. points in the loss column are inflated by the game vs. NU on Sept. 4, where AdU scored 26 T.O. points. Excluding this outlier, it would read 13.6

The win and loss values are not mutually exclusive - because fastbreak points may come off turnovers - but their exclusivity is not the point. This proves how integral this aspect of the game is for Adamson. Unfortunately, this was exposed in their last two games versus ADMU and NU. 

AdU vs Ateneo 55-52 (box score here).

Besides the fast break and turnover point trends that you will find in the box score, there are two other telling statistics. Of its 59 FGA, Adamson took nearly half of those attempts beyond the arc. Lester Alvarez shot 4-for-12, but if you take away his shooting, the team only mustered 3-for-14, or 21.4% Credit goes to ADMU's defense for allowing only 10FGM inside the arc for the entire game.

The second, and more frustrating statistic, is the free throw shooting. To shoot 11-for-22 and lose by three points makes it hurt so much more.

AdU vs NU 62-59 (box score not yet uploaded, but I have a physical copy)

This has to sting a little bit more. AdU held the edge in both rebounding categories (37 to 30, and 22 to 5) and turnovers forced (29 to 14), resulting into a 71-42 FGA advantage. How did they lose?

NU shot 25-for-42 (59.5 FG%), including a staggering 20-for-31 (64.5 FG%) effort inside the arc. Adamson could only put up 19-for-45 from two (42.2%, which actually isn't bad, but lacking for this game) and threw up 5-for-26 from three (19.2%, yikes.)

Despite owning the offensive glass, it meant that Adamson had to test the NU half-court defense again and again (why couldn't they didn't figure it out after so many tries?) and settled for a ridiculous number of shots from beyond the arc. It's a matter of shot selection: put up better shots when you know the three-ball isn't falling, or brave the combination of Emmanuel Mbe and Jewel Ponferrada inside and get free throws (Adamson was only 6-for-9 at the line.)

If Adamson can't cue the opponent into as many mistakes, it's then a matter of finding better options with what to do with the ball.

note: statistics used in this post (except those that deal with the Sept. 4 game vs. NU) are those as of September 3, where all teams have played 12 games.